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Land-surface parameters derived from digital land surface models (DLSMs) (for example, slope, surface curvature, topographic position, topographic roughness, aspect, heat load index, and topographic moisture index) can serve as key predictor variables in a wide variety of mapping and modeling tasks relating to geomorphic processes, landform delineation, ecological and habitat characterization, and geohazard, soil, wetland, and general thematic mapping and modeling. However, selecting features from the large number of potential derivatives that may be predictive for a specific feature or process can be complicated, and existing literature may offer contradictory or incomplete guidance. The availability of multiple data sources and the need to define moving window shapes, sizes, and cell weightings further complicate selecting and optimizing the feature space. This review focuses on the calculation and use of DLSM parameters for empirical spatial predictive modeling applications, which rely on training data and explanatory variables to make predictions of landscape features and processes over a defined geographic extent. The target audience for this review is researchers and analysts undertaking predictive modeling tasks that make use of the most widely used terrain variables. To outline best practices and highlight future research needs, we review a range of land-surface parameters relating to steepness, local relief, rugosity, slope orientation, solar insolation, and moisture and characterize their relationship to geomorphic processes. We then discuss important considerations when selecting such parameters for predictive mapping and modeling tasks to assist analysts in answering two critical questions: What landscape conditions or processes does a given measure characterize? How might a particular metric relate to the phenomenon or features being mapped, modeled, or studied? We recommend the use of landscape- and problem-specific pilot studies to answer, to the extent possible, these questions for potential features of interest in a mapping or modeling task. We describe existing techniques to reduce the size of the feature space using feature selection and feature reduction methods, assess the importance or contribution of specific metrics, and parameterize moving windows or characterize the landscape at varying scales using alternative methods while highlighting strengths, drawbacks, and knowledge gaps for specific techniques. Recent developments, such as explainable machine learning and convolutional neural network (CNN)-based deep learning, may guide and/or minimize the need for feature space engineering and ease the use of DLSMs in predictive modeling tasks. 

Many studies of Earth surface processes and landscape evolution rely on having accurate and extensive data sets of surficial geologic units and landforms. Automated extraction of geomorphic features using deep learning provides an objective way to consistently map landforms over large spatial extents. However, there is no consensus on the optimal input feature space for such analyses. We explore the impact of input feature space for extracting geomorphic features from land surface parameters (LSPs) derived from digital terrain models (DTMs) using convolutional neural network (CNN)‐based semantic segmentation deep learning. We compare four input feature space configurations: (a) a three‐layer composite consisting of a topographic position index (TPI) calculated using a 50 m radius circular window, square root of topographic slope, and TPI calculated using an annulus with a 2 m inner radius and 10 m outer radius, (b) a single illuminating position hillshade, (c) a multidirectional hillshade, and (d) a slopeshade. We test each feature space input using three deep learning algorithms and four use cases: two with natural features and two with anthropogenic features. The three‐layer composite generally provided lower overall losses for the training samples, a higher F1‐score for the withheld validation data, and better performance for generalizing to withheld testing data from a new geographic extent. Results suggest that CNN‐based deep learning for mapping geomorphic features or landforms from LSPs is sensitive to input feature space. Given the large number of LSPs that can be derived from DTM data and the variety of geomorphic mapping tasks that can be undertaken using CNN‐based methods, we argue that additional research focused on feature space considerations is needed and suggest future research directions. We also suggest that the three‐layer composite implemented here can offer better performance in comparison to using hillshades or other common terrain visualization surfaces and is, thus, worth considering for different mapping and feature extraction tasks.

 

Bedrock landslides shape topography and mobilize large volumes of sediment. Yet, interactions between landslide‐produced sediment and fluvial systems that together govern large‐scale landscape evolution are not well understood. To explain morphological patterns observed in steep, landslide‐prone terrain, we explicitly model stochastic landsliding and associated sediment dynamics. The model accounts for several common landscape features such as slope frequency distributions, which include values in excess of regional stability limits, quasi‐planar hillslopes decorated with straight, closely spaced channel‐like features, and accumulation of sediment in valley networks rather than on hillslopes. Stochastic landsliding strongly affects the magnitude and timing of sediment supply to the fluvial system. We show that intermittent sediment supply is ultimately reflected in topography. At dynamic equilibrium, landslide‐derived sediment pulses generate persistent landscape dynamism through the formation and breaching of landslide dams and epigenetic gorges as landslides force shifts in channel positions. Our work highlights the importance of interactions between landslides and sediment dynamics that ultimately control landscape‐scale response to environmental change.

 

Abstract. Landslides are the main source of sediment in most mountain ranges. Rivers then act as conveyor belts, evacuating landslide-derived sediment. Sediment dynamics are known to influence landscape evolution through interactions among landslide sediment delivery, fluvial transport and river incision into bedrock. Sediment delivery and its interaction with river incision therefore control the pace of landscape evolution and mediate relationships among tectonics, climate and erosion. Numerical landscape evolution models (LEMs) are well suited to study the interactions among these surface processes. They enable evaluation of a range of hypotheses at varying temporal and spatial scales. While many models have been used to study the dynamic interplay between tectonics, erosion and climate, the role of interactions between landslide-derived sediment and river incision has received much less attention. Here, we present HyLands, a hybrid landscape evolution model integrated within the TopoToolbox Landscape Evolution Model (TTLEM) framework. The hybrid nature of the model lies in its capacity to simulate both erosion and deposition at any place in the landscape due to fluvial bedrock incision, sediment transport, and rapid, stochastic mass wasting through landsliding. Fluvial sediment transport and bedrock incision are calculated using the recently developed Stream Power with Alluvium Conservation and Entrainment (SPACE) model. Therefore, rivers can dynamically transition from detachment-limited to transport-limited and from bedrock to bedrock–alluvial to fully alluviated states. Erosion and sediment production by landsliding are calculated using a Mohr–Coulomb stability analysis, while landslide-derived sediment is routed and deposited using a multiple-flow-direction, nonlinear deposition method. We describe and evaluate the HyLands 1.0 model using analytical solutions and observations. We first illustrate the functionality of HyLands to capture river dynamics ranging from detachment-limited to transport-limited conditions. Second, we apply the model to a portion of the Namche Barwa massif in eastern Tibet and compare simulated and observed landslide magnitude–frequency and area–volume scaling relationships. Finally, we illustrate the relevance of explicitly simulating landsliding and sediment dynamics over longer timescales for landscape evolution in general and river dynamics in particular. With HyLands we provide a new tool to understand both the long- and short-term coupling between stochastic hillslope processes, river incision and source-to-sink sediment dynamics. 

Abstract. Models of landscape evolution provide insight into the geomorphic history of specific field areas, create testable predictions of landform development, demonstrate the consequences of current geomorphic process theory, and spark imagination through hypothetical scenarios. While the last 4 decades have brought the proliferation of many alternative formulations for the redistribution of mass by Earth surface processes, relatively few studies have systematically compared and tested these alternative equations. We present a new Python package, terrainbento 1.0, that enables multi-model comparison, sensitivity analysis, and calibration of Earth surface process models. Terrainbento provides a set of 28 model programs that implement alternative transport laws related to four process elements: hillslope processes, surface-water hydrology, erosion by flowing water, and material properties. The 28 model programs are a systematic subset of the 2048 possible numerical models associated with 11 binary choices. Each binary choice is related to one of these four elements – for example, the use of linear or nonlinear hillslope diffusion. Terrainbento is an extensible framework: base classes that treat the elements common to all numerical models (such as input/output and boundary conditions) make it possible to create a new numerical model without reinventing these common methods. Terrainbento is built on top of the Landlab framework such that new Landlab components directly support the creation of new terrainbento model programs. Terrainbento is fully documented, has 100 % unit test coverage including numerical comparison with analytical solutions for process models, and continuous integration testing. We support future users and developers with introductory Jupyter notebooks and a template for creating new terrainbento model programs. In this paper, we describe the package structure, process theory, and software implementation of terrainbento. Finally, we illustrate the utility of terrainbento with a benchmark example highlighting the differences in steady-state topography between five different numerical models.

 

Long‐term erosion can threaten infrastructure and buried waste, with consequences for management of natural systems. We develop erosion projections over 10 ky for a 5 km²watershed in New York, USA. Because there is no single landscape evolution model appropriate for the study site, we assess uncertainty in projections associated withmodel structureby considering a set of alternative models, each with a slightly different governing equation. In addition to model structure uncertainty, we consider the following uncertainty sources: selection of a final model set; each model's parameter values estimated through calibration; simulation boundary conditions such as the future incision of downstream rivers and future climate; and initial conditions (e.g., site topography which may undergo near‐term anthropogenic modification). We use an analysis‐of‐variance approach to assess and partition uncertainty in projected erosion into the variance attributable to each source. Our results suggest one sixth of the watershed will experience erosion exceeding 5 m in the next 10 ky. Uncertainty in projected erosion increases with time, and the projection uncertainty attributable to each source manifests in a distinct spatial pattern. Model structure uncertainty is relatively low, which reflects our ability to constrain parameter values and reduce the model set through calibration to the recent geologic past. Beyond site‐specific findings, our work demonstrates what information prediction‐under‐uncertainty studies can provide about geomorphic systems. Our results represent the first application of a comprehensive multi‐model uncertainty analysis for long‐term erosion forecasting.

 

We review select mature geomorphic transport laws for use in temperate ridge and valley landscapes and compile parameter estimates for use in applications. This work is motivated by a case study of sensitivity analysis, calibration, validation, multimodel comparison, and prediction under uncertainty, which required bounding values for parameter ranges. Considered geomorphic transport formulae span hillslope sediment transport, soil production, and erosion by surface water. We compile or derive estimates for the parameters in these transport formulae. Additionally, we address a common challenge—connecting changes in precipitation distribution to changes in effective erodibility—by using a simple hydrologic model and a method to estimate precipitation distribution parameters using commonly available data. While some parameters are reasonably well constrained, others span orders of magnitude. Some, such as soil infiltration capacity, have a direct physical meaning but are challenging to measure on geologically relevant timescales. Through the process of compiling these ranges we identify common challenges in parameter determination. The issue of comparable units derives from considering an exponent as an empirically inferred coefficient rather than as an expression of a fundamental relationship. The issue of appropriate timescales derives from the mismatch between human measurement and geologic timescales. This contribution thus serves both as a practical compilation for applications and as a synthesis of outstanding challenges in parameter selection for geomorphic transport laws.

 

Despite considerable community effort, there is no general set of equations to model long‐term landscape evolution. In order to determine a suitable set of landscape evolution process laws for a site where postglacial erosion has incised valleys up to 50 m deep, we generate a set of alternative models and perform a multimodel analysis. The most basic model we consider includes stream power channel incision, uniform lithology, hillslope transport by linear diffusion, and surface‐water discharge proportional to drainage area. We systematically add one, two, or three elements of complexity to this model from one of four categories: hillslope processes, channel processes, surface hydrology, and representation of geologic materials. We apply methods of formal model analysis to the 37 alternative models. The global Method of Morris sensitivity analysis method is used to identify model input parameters that most and least strongly influence model outputs. Only a few parameters are identified as important, and this finding is consistent across two alternative model outputs: one based on a collection of topographic metrics and one that uses an objective function based on a topographic difference. Parameters that control channel erosion are consistently important, while hillslope diffusivity is important for only select model outputs. Uncertainty in initial and boundary conditions is associated with low sensitivity. Sensitivity analysis provides insight to model dynamics and is a critical step in using model analysis for mechanistic hypothesis testing in landscape evolution theory.